A high-stakes election day has unfolded in Solomon Islands. Here's what you need to know (2024)

Voters in Solomon Islands will head to the polls today for a high stakes election which will be closely watched across the Pacific — and beyond.

Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare and his political opponents have spent several weeks crisscrossing the sprawling archipelago as they try to drum up support for their candidates.

Now the people of Solomon Islands will be able to deliver their verdict, although it could easily be weeks before the country finds out who its next prime minister will be.

Here's what you need to know about the contest, and how it might play out over the coming weeks and months.

Who are the main contenders?

Manasseh Sogavare is the dominant political figure in Solomon Islands right now, and he's hoping to cement his authority by holding onto power – a feat that a sitting prime minister has achieved only once before in the history of Solomon Islands.

Mr Sogavare drew international attention when he switched diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China in 2019.

His decision to sign a controversial security pact with China in 2022 stirred deep unease in Canberra, as well as generating another round of global headlines.

The prime minister has been campaigning hard on his decision to draw closer to Beijing, declaring that it put Solomon Islands "on the map" and will bring incalculable development and commercial benefits to his country, which remains mired in sometimes grinding poverty.

Mr Sogavare's main opponents — including former opposition leader Mathew Wale and high profile opposition MP Peter Kenilorea Jr — are much more sceptical towards China, and have instead vowed to fix persistent woes within the country's essential health, education and transport services.

Mr Kenilorea Jr (who is the son of the country's first prime minister) has made a particularly energetic pitch for younger voters, who actually make up the bulk of the electorate in Solomon Islands, a country that has an average age of barely 20.

Other contenders for the top job could also emerge from within the top ranks of Mr Sogavare's own political coalition in the wake of voting. And there's also a chance that other political veterans in Solomon Islands could re-emerge as major players and potential leaders after the results come in.

Who is likely to win?

It's very difficult to say, because politics in Solomon Islands is often fluid and unpredictable.

Mr Sogavare and his main political opponents will have to first win their own constituencies in the 50-strong parliament before they can start jostling to build a winning coalition of MPs.

While most observers expect Mr Sogavare will hold on to his perch in East Choiseul, he'll still have to see off some energetic challengers — including the son of the MP who Mr Sogavare first ousted in the electorate years ago.

A political shock is not impossible.

This can happen in Solomon Islands, where constituencies are small — for example, in 2016 then-prime minister Gordon Darcy-Lilo was kicked out of parliament when he lost his seat of Gizo-Kolombangara to a challenger.

But if Mr Sogavare and the other major players are still standing, then they (along with any other re-emerging political veterans — keep an eye on Mr Darcy-Lilo who's running again in the seat of Central Honiara) will likely set up rival camps in Honiara's main hotels to try and build a governing coalition of MPs.

The magic number is 26: enough to command a majority in the parliament.

This is where it gets complicated.

How is the new prime minister picked?

In Solomon Islands, negotiations to form a new government are opaque, quicksilver affairs.

There will be plenty of horse-trading, and deal-making.

And as Solomon Islands academic and former senior official Transform Aqorau writes, these political negotiations in "camps" are also an entry point for commercial interests and bribery — including from logging companies and major business houses in the country.

"These camps are expensive, and it therefore raises the question: who is meeting the costs of these camps?" he wrote in 2022.

"This is where the extractive industry becomes involved, as it is the only group that can likely afford to support the camp costs, but it also has a vested interest in who is going to be in government."

While few things are certain, Mr Sogavare probably starts as favourite in this contest.

The prime minister enjoyed a clear majority in the last parliament (which was unusually politically stable) and more than 30 candidates aligned to his OUR party are standing for re-election in their seats.

Not all of them will be returned but many will likely be successful.

As Terence Wood points out in DevPolicy, in the past two elections in Solomon Islands, around three quarters of all sitting MPs who defended their seats were re-elected.

If that happens again then Mr Sogavare has a clear advantage.

Of course, the negotiation process can easily generate surprises and loyalties can shift quickly. Defections are entirely possible.

There's a reason incumbent prime ministers in Solomon Islands are almost always toppled either before or after elections.

But as Wood says, Mr Sogavare will probably start in a stronger position than any of his likely opponents.

"Being at the helm of the party with the most MPs when elected MPs start the secretive, treacherous process of selecting the prime minister after the election is a big advantage," he writes.

The main question is whether that advantage will be enough to get him over the line to secure a historic victory.

When will Solomon Islands get a new prime minister?

Both political insiders in Honiara and outside observers are predicting it will take weeks for a new government to form and a final victor to emerge.

Part of this comes down to logistics.

For the first time, Solomon Islands is this year holding national, provincial and Honiara local elections simultaneously. That means the vote count could stretch out for a week, perhaps even two.

It's harder to predict how long the political negotiations and horse-trading will take after that. In 2019, there was a full six weeks between election day and Mr Sogavare becoming prime minister.

It could take just as long this time around, although murmurs are already doing the rounds in Honiara about Mr Sogavare and his allies trying to find a way to circumvent the tradition and locking in a majority much more quickly.

Still, barring surprises, it could easily take a month or more for a new prime minister to emerge victorious from the fray with a working majority in parliament.

Is that the end of it? Not quite.

Unsuccessful candidates who suspect foul play (or who simply want to gum up the gears of the new government) could then launch court challenges to try and contest the results.

That means it could be even longer before a new government is truly settled and bedded down.

In the meantime, a joint Australian National University and Solomon Islands National University election observer team is spread across the country, surveying voter opinions and studying how candidates conduct their campaigns.

James Batley, a former Australian high commissioner to Honiara who is part of the election observer team, told ABC's Pacific Beat last week that Solomon Islands' electoral officials appear well-prepared for the poll.

"Things are pretty much set."

Is there a risk of unrest?

There is, although it's (again) difficult to make predictions.

Solomon Islands has certainly had more than its fair share of turmoil and violence in recent decades, and political protests morphed into riots in both 2019 and late 2021.

But both the Solomon Islands government and the country's traditional partners — like Australia and New Zealand — are pouring a substantial amount of resources into trying to ensure the whole process runs smoothly and quietly.

There will be a plethora of election observers in the country from a host of different countries and multilateral organisations, including Australia, New Zealand, the Pacific Islands Forum, the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom, the Melanesian Spearhead Group and the G7.

Around 300 Australian army personnel and 130 Australian Federal Police have also joined counterparts from New Zealand, Fiji and PNG to help provide security for the election, and to help with logistics.

A Chinese police liaison team in Solomon Islands is also providing training and support to local police, although it's not clear exactly what role they'll play on election day, or in the event of violence.

The most likely sparks for unrest are probably a bit down the track rather than during the election itself — for example, when the final results become clear, and a new prime minister emerges. Any subsequent legal challenges could also be a spark for protests.

As Australian National University academic Anouk Ride told the Lowy Institute Pacific Changemakers podcast, if people begin to believe that "foreign money" or "foreign interests" have driven the result, then there could be trouble.

"If the prime minister wins on a small majority then there may be several court cases to challenge the electoral results, and if (they) attract large crowds or are seen to be deciding the direction of the government, then these could be very controversial as well," she said.

"Plus, if there's rumours going around about the Electoral Commission … not doing its job or there's been foreign interference in the election – all these things could lead to crowds of people developing and potential conflict or even riots breaking out.

"So we have at least six months of uncertainty before … we have a cemented government in place."